Local election results in Croatia largely as expected – with one major exception

(Photo: HINA/ Mario STRMOTIĆ/Pool)

ZAGREB, 19 May 2025 – Political analysts Višeslav Raos and Davor Gjenero agree that the results of Croatia’s latest local elections were mostly in line with expectations across major cities—except in Rijeka, which they described as the biggest surprise of the vote.

According to Gjenero, the success of Iva Rinčić in Rijeka should not come as a shock. He credited her with running the most effective campaign, noting that she clearly defined her target demographics months in advance—particularly millennials and Generation X, who were otherwise largely ignored by other candidates.

He added that Rinčić managed to steer clear of political traps and accusations that she was a covert HDZ proxy aiming to weaken the SDP.

Iva Rinčić (Photo: HINA/ Miljenko KLEPAC/Pool)

Gjenero believes she is unlikely to face serious obstacles in forming a majority in the city council—unlike her opponent, current mayor Marko Filipović, who struggled to do so.

Running with the Action of Youth and partner parties, Rinčić captured 41.07% of the vote and now moves on to the second round against independent incumbent Filipović, who garnered just 18.88%.

Raos highlighted Filipović’s decision to leave the SDP and run independently against the party’s chosen successor as a serious blow to the Social Democrats.

SDP Disappointed After Hopes Raised by Milanović’s Victory

The SDP also fared poorly in Sisak and failed to meet expectations in both Zadar and Šibenik, said Raos, noting the party had hoped to build on the momentum from President Zoran Milanović’s resounding win.

On the other hand, cooperation between the SDP and green-left party Možemo! in Zagreb proved highly effective, based on the convincing results for both the mayoral race and the City Assembly.

Raos said the opposition vote in Zagreb was split among many candidates, which helped Možemo! and the SDP consolidate support.

Incumbent Zagreb mayor Tomislav Tomašević, backed by Možemo! and the SDP, won 47.54% of the vote, with their list for the City Assembly securing 43.56%—a result Gjenero called entirely expected.

“It was absolutely vital for them to secure a majority in the City Assembly,” Gjenero explained. “There were forces—let’s call them controversial business interests—hoping to blackmail the mayor through proxy candidate lists. They knew he would likely win the mayoralty, but they were betting he wouldn’t have majority support in the assembly.”

This perceived threat, he added, may have further energised Tomašević’s base to turn out.

Tomislav Tomašević (Photo: Hina/ Dario GRZELJ/ Pool)

Gjenero predicted Tomašević would “cruise” through the second round of voting, just as President Milanović did in his re-election bid.

Independent candidate Marija Selak Raspudić, who secured 15.68%, will face Tomašević in the second round. Gjenero said her strong showing spells trouble for HDZ, whose candidate Mislav Herman came in third with just 12.97%. He criticised the party’s persistent underperformance in the capital, saying, “HDZ has been making strategic errors in Zagreb for 29 years.”

As for the SDP in Zagreb, Gjenero argued the party effectively no longer exists as a functioning organisation. “Možemo! saved them,” he stated bluntly.

He warned that the SDP is in a similarly dire state elsewhere, including Rijeka and Sisak, suggesting that the party’s organisational collapse is a serious risk to Croatia’s democratic system.

Raos concurred that the SDP’s results were far below what they had hoped for. However, he said it would be wrong to declare the party finished. “They’ll do everything they can to spin the results more favourably,” he said.

HDZ Holds Ground, But Second Round Still Key

In contrast, Gjenero said HDZ has managed to maintain its party infrastructure and, so far, has avoided major setbacks. “They’re on track to win the Šibenik-Knin County, which they didn’t hold in the previous mandate—that’s a significant gain,” he said.

He described Ivan Radić’s landslide first-round victory in Osijek—with 70.95% of the vote—as a pleasant surprise for HDZ, securing another term for the current mayor.

In Split, HDZ is also in a competitive position. Gjenero suggested the party may have an easier time forming a governing majority in the city council than current mayor Ivica Puljak, should he win re-election. Puljak (Centre party) received 35.34%, while HDZ’s Tomislav Šuta captured 30.33%, setting the stage for a tight runoff.

(Infografika HINA/ Kahla studio)

Other Parties Struggle: Most, DP, IDS All Weakened

Raos noted that poor results were anticipated for Most, the Homeland Movement (DP), and Domino—each of which suffered significant setbacks in the local elections. Meanwhile, support for IDS (Istrian Democratic Assembly) has been steadily eroding for years.

In Pula, the outcome for the county prefect remains to be seen, but Gjenero confirmed the seriousness of the crisis within IDS, pointing to the resignation of party leader Dalibor Paus following the results. “Their attempt to pass leadership to a younger generation simply didn’t work,” he said.

He also believes Most’s internal crisis is deepening, and that the Homeland Movement “has effectively disappeared” from the political scene.

Low Turnout and Campaign Apathy

Commenting on the lower turnout and lack of choice in many municipalities—often with just one candidate list—Gjenero pointed out that turnout tends to be higher when voters believe a major political shift is possible.

Raos added that local elections traditionally see reduced participation, as voters tend to view them as less important. He also noted that many Croatians are weary after an intense “super-election year.” In many cities, he concluded, “there just wasn’t a particularly strong campaign, nor much in the way of new ideas.”