July and August forecast released: Here’s what’s in store for Croatia

Croatia is likely to experience a warmer-than-average rest of the summer, according to the latest seasonal forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

The forecast, based on an ensemble of 51 simulations, indicates temperatures are expected to remain above the long-term average throughout much of the summer and into autumn 2026.

Meteorologist Bojan Lipovšćak notes for N1 that seasonal forecasts do not predict day-to-day weather. Instead, they estimate the probability of temperatures and rainfall being above or below long-term climate averages.

Warmer July and August expected

The ECMWF model suggests July will be around 0.5°C to 1°C warmer than average, with a high probability of stable weather dominated by periods of high atmospheric pressure.

These conditions increase the likelihood of frequent tropical nights, when temperatures remain above 20°C, and very hot days with maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C.

Rainfall in July is expected to be close to average or slightly below average. However, as seen in recent years, much of the rain could fall during short-lived heavy showers and thunderstorms, separated by longer dry periods.

August is also forecast to be warmer than average, although rainfall projections are less certain. More intense heatwaves are possible, particularly when very warm air moves north from North Africa.

September could extend the summer

September is also expected to be warmer than average, increasing the chances of an extended summer, especially along the Adriatic coast where sea temperatures could remain well above the long-term average.

Rainfall forecasts for the month remain highly uncertain, with the model showing a wide range of possible outcomes. This raises the possibility of wetter Atlantic air reaching the region and the development of stronger weather systems.

As a result, September could bring the first significant storms following the summer dry spell, while temperatures gradually decline but remain above average.

According to the ECMWF forecast, above-average temperatures are expected to continue through October and November.

While autumn is likely to remain milder than usual, more frequent incursions of colder air from northern Europe are expected. Rainfall forecasts remain uncertain, pointing to increasingly unsettled conditions with rapid alternation between dry periods and heavy rainfall.

Meteorologists say this pattern has become increasingly characteristic across the Mediterranean, the Croatian Adriatic coast and the Balkans, with a growing likelihood of extreme weather events, particularly intense downpours following prolonged dry spells.

The seasonal outlook also indicates that much of central and southeastern Europe is expected to experience above-average temperatures during both summer and autumn.