Croatia’s summer 2026 forecast is out – here’s what it predicts

ZAGREB, 1 June 2026 – Croatia is likely to experience another warmer-than-average summer in 2026, according to the latest seasonal forecast released by the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ).

The forecast, which covers June, July and August, has been prepared by DHMZ’s Weather Analysis and Forecasting Sector and is based largely on guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Meteorologists say there is a very high probability that average summer temperatures across Croatia will be above the 1991–2020 climate average.

All three summer months are expected to be warmer than usual, with July showing the strongest signal for temperatures significantly above the long-term average.

Despite the outlook for a hot summer, DHMZ notes that seasonal forecasts cannot predict the timing, duration, frequency or geographical spread of heatwaves. However, the likelihood of heatwaves occurring during the season remains high.

The agency also stressed that short-lived periods of cooler weather remain possible, including temporary cold air intrusions associated with passing weather fronts, which could bring temperatures closer to or even below seasonal norms for brief periods.

Rainfall projections are less certain than temperature forecasts, reflecting the greater complexity of predicting precipitation over seasonal timescales.

Nevertheless, the forecast indicates that total summer rainfall is likely to be below average across much of Croatia, with a moderate level of confidence.

The most pronounced rainfall deficits are expected in July, when precipitation could be considerably lower than normal in many regions.

June, however, may bring rainfall amounts closer to the seasonal average in some areas, with locally above-average totals also possible.

DHMZ highlighted that summer rainfall is typically unevenly distributed due to the convective nature of showers and thunderstorms, as well as local influences such as terrain, proximity to the sea and sea temperatures.

As a result, some locations could receive heavy downpours delivering rainfall totals comparable to a weekly or even monthly average, while others may remain dry for several weeks.

The agency advises residents and visitors to continue following short-term weather forecasts and official warnings, particularly for heatwaves and severe thunderstorms, which can only be forecast reliably a few days in advance.

The summer 2026 outlook is consistent with forecasts issued by the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) and the Mediterranean Climate Outlook Forum (MedCOF), both of which include Croatia among their participating members.