Croatia sees rise in births and returns, says the demography minister

Croatia recorded a modest but significant rise in births last year, with around 500 more children born compared to the previous year, offering cautious optimism amid long-standing demographic challenges.

Speaking on Croatian Radiotelevision’s (HRT) central evening news programme, Minister of Demography and Immigration Ivan Šipić addressed whether this increase marks the beginning of a demographic turnaround or represents a temporary fluctuation.

“We are fully aware that the situation is not easy,” Šipić said. “However, there is a degree of optimism because we have finally begun to tackle major negative trends. The task of this ministry, and indeed the entire Government, is to confront these challenges directly.”

Return migration strengthening demographic renewal

According to the minister, the strongest return migration is being recorded in areas that previously experienced the highest levels of emigration.

He stressed that return migration is just as crucial as birth rates for demographic renewal, particularly as entire families are returning to Croatia.

“The link between return migration and the current demographic situation is very visible,” Šipić explained. “Pregnant women are returning, children are being born, and this is happening within returning families.”

Data obtained from the Tax Administration at the ministry’s request suggest that between 15,000 and 20,000 people have returned to Croatia.

Official figures currently confirm around 13,000 registered returnees who are directly employed, as employment registration is required for inclusion in the dataset.

However, more recent unofficial estimates point to a significantly higher figure.

“We ask for patience,” Šipić said. “By March we will have final figures on births, fertility rates, and migration movements – arrivals, returns and departures – which will give us a much clearer overall picture.”

The minister acknowledged that Croatia remains far from the desired fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, the level considered necessary for long-term population replacement.

This challenge, he noted, is not unique to Croatia but affects most European countries.

“One part of the solution is certainly immigration and return migration policy,” Šipić said. “That is why this year, alongside classic pronatalist policies and a wide range of support measures in cooperation with cities, municipalities and counties, we aim to create a national programme for the return of Croatian emigrants – targeted and carefully designed.”

Šipić emphasised that the Government does not intend to rely on rhetoric alone when encouraging returns.

“We do not want to sell demagogy, as was done for years, where people are told to return – but return where, if affordable housing, adequate wages, secure employment and family security are not ensured?” he said. “We are working precisely in these areas. Our task is to stop the dark clouds and create positive, credible stories.”

Long-term outlook remains challenging

Despite early positive indicators, long-term projections underline the scale of Croatia’s demographic challenge. Forecasts by Eurostat and the United Nations suggest the country could lose around 600,000 residents by 2050, a trend that would place serious strain on the labour market, pension system and healthcare services.

“Our primary objective is to halt negative trends,” Šipić said. “Through a combination of measures across the entire Government, and especially through this ministry, which should be one of the key pillars, we are working to create stability and actively counter demographic decline.”

Šipić also highlighted growing recognition of demographic issues at the European level. During a recent European People’s Party (EPP) leadership meeting held in Zagreb, demography was placed firmly on the agenda through a declaration proposed by Croatia’s HDZ party and the Ministry of Demography and Immigration.