Croatia records more people moving in than leaving, experts warn on age structure

Zagreb

Croatia ended 2025 with an estimated population of 3,876,002, around 2,000 more people than a year earlier, according to the latest estimates from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS).

While the slight increase marks a positive shift after years of population decline, demographic experts say the country’s age structure continues to present significant long-term challenges.

Figures released by DZS show that 56,665 people moved to Croatia from abroad in 2025, while 37,485 emigrated, resulting in positive net migration. However, immigration was lower than in 2024, when more than 70,000 arrivals were recorded, Večernji list reported.

Despite the overall population increase, Croatia’s population is continuing to age.

By the end of 2025, the number of children aged up to 14 had fallen to around 529,500, approximately 8,000 fewer than a year earlier. At the same time, the number of residents aged 65 and over rose to around 911,500, an increase of almost 15,000 compared with 2024.

Demographer Stjepan Šterc said it is still too early to draw firm conclusions about the composition of migration, as official data showing the nationality and age of those arriving and leaving has yet to be published.

He said it is possible that Croatia recorded more returning Croatian citizens than emigrants during 2025, particularly following efforts to reduce the import of foreign labour. However, he stressed that this cannot be confirmed until the full official data is released.

Šterc also warned that the continued departure of more than 37,000 people, including many families with children, remains a major concern and continues to affect Croatia’s demographic structure. He added that long-term policies aimed at encouraging people to remain in Croatia and attracting emigrants to return are still needed.

More encouraging figures have emerged from birth statistics.

During the first five months of 2026, 13,318 children were born, an increase of 653 births compared with the same period last year. The figures continue a trend that first emerged in 2025, when the long-term decline in births was halted.

Šterc said that if the increase continues throughout the year, Croatia could record around 1,000 more births than in 2025. He said this would represent an important demographic development but stressed that sustained growth would require long-term pronatalist policies alongside measures supporting young families, retaining residents and encouraging the return of Croatians living abroad.