Croatia sees slight increase in births, but demographers warn there is no turnaround

By Vera Kadijević

ZAGREB, 9 February 2026 (Hina) – After years of steady decline, Croatia recorded a modest increase in the number of live births in 2025.

While the rise has been welcomed by the government as a positive sign, demographers caution that the increase is small and does not represent a reversal of the country’s long-term demographic decline.

According to provisional data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics (DZS), 32,385 children were born in Croatia in 2025. This is 527 more than in 2024, when 31,858 live births were recorded, the lowest annual figure in the past decade.

The increase marks the end of a continuous downward trend that had culminated in 2024, offering a rare moment of optimism in a demographic picture that has been unfavourable for more than three decades.

Government points to demographic measures

Minister for Demography and Immigration Ivan Šipić has linked the rise in births to the effects of government demographic policies. The Ministry views the increase as evidence that long-term measures aimed at supporting families may be starting to produce results.

Šipić highlighted a sharp increase in the use of parental and paternity leave, attributing it to the new Law on Maternity and Parental Benefits and higher financial allowances.

According to the Ministry, such measures ease the financial burden on families and can help parents decide to have children earlier or expand their families.

Despite this, experts stress that the figures should be interpreted with caution.

Experts: no demographic turnaround

Demographer Ivo Turk from the Ivo Pilar Institute of Social Sciences emphasises that Croatia has experienced a continuous natural population decline since the early 1990s.

“The preliminary data for 2025 are not an exception to that trend,” Turk said. “This is a reduction in the intensity of a negative trend, not its reversal. Croatia continues to record a significant natural population decrease.”

He added that the statistical significance of the increase remains limited. “It could be a natural fluctuation, or it could mark the beginning of a slowing of the long-term decline. Only time will tell.”

Small changes, strong negative momentum

A similar assessment comes from demographer Ivan Čipin, professor at the Faculty of Economics and Business in Zagreb, who points to Croatia’s strong negative demographic momentum.

Annual changes of a few hundred births, he explains, are not unusual in a population of Croatia’s size. A rise of around one to two per cent can easily be explained by normal year-to-year variation rather than a genuine shift in long-term trends.

“An increase of around 500 births is encouraging,” Čipin said, “but I would not interpret it as a demographic turnaround. Croatia is strongly affected by the fact that smaller generations of women are now entering reproductive age.”

Seasonal patterns remain unchanged

Monthly data show that seasonal birth patterns remain largely unchanged. In 2024, the highest number of births was recorded in October (2,926), while June saw the fewest (2,384).

In 2025, births peaked in September with 3,087 newborns, while February was the weakest month with 2,233 births. Notably, 2025 again saw at least one month with more than 3,000 births, something that did not occur in 2024.

Čipin notes that part of the increase may be explained by a so-called “tempo effect”, the realisation of previously postponed plans for parenthood.

“In periods of uncertainty, couples often delay having children. When conditions stabilise, some of those births occur later,” he explained. “This changes the timing of births, but not necessarily the total number of children women will have over their lifetime.”

Long-term challenges remain

Both demographers agree that the impact of government measures cannot be assessed on the basis of a single year. Turk warns that unfavourable demographic processes have been unfolding for too long to be reversed quickly.

“One swallow does not make a spring,” he said. “If the trend continues, then we can talk about improvement. One better year is simply not enough.”

Čipin adds that financial incentives can help couples realise planned births but rarely lead to a sustained increase in fertility. More effective, he argues, are stable and long-term policies such as accessible childcare, secure employment, and better work-life balance.

According to Eurostat projections, the number of births in Croatia could fall to around 25,000 per year by the middle of the century, while annual deaths are expected to remain close to 50,000. This would mean that natural population decline will continue to be pronounced.

In that context, demographers say it is more realistic to speak of mitigating population decline rather than returning to fertility levels seen in previous decades.