Hotter summers in Croatia to bring new challenges, experts say 

Dubrovnik

Croatia is already experiencing rising temperatures, more frequent heatwaves and increasingly unpredictable weather and it is expected to reshape everyday life, agriculture, tourism and infrastructure in the coming decades, according to leading Croatian experts.

While periods of extreme summer heat are expected to ease as the season progresses, specialists say recent weather patterns, including prolonged heatwaves, sudden temperature swings, unusual late spring frosts and extended dry spells, reflect a broader climate trend rather than normal seasonal variation, Večernji list writes.

Scientists from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) note that air temperatures across Croatia have been rising steadily since the second half of the 20th century.

Along the Adriatic coast, average annual temperatures have increased by around 0.2–0.3°C per decade, while central Croatia has warmed even faster, by up to 0.5°C every decade.

Climate projections suggest that by the middle of this century average annual temperatures across most of Croatia could rise by a further 1.5–1.7°C compared with the 1981–2010 period.

Summer temperatures are expected to increase the most, by between 2.0°C and 2.4°C in some inland parts of Dalmatia.

Experts warn that these seemingly modest increases would make today’s exceptional heat increasingly commonplace, resulting in longer and more intense heatwaves that place greater pressure on public health, water supplies, agriculture, tourism and urban environments.

Rainfall patterns are also expected to change. Summers are likely to become drier across much of the country, particularly along the coast, in central Dalmatia and mountainous regions, increasing the likelihood of prolonged droughts and water shortages.

Croatia has already adopted a national climate adaptation strategy extending to 2040, with planned investment of almost €3.7 billion. Agriculture is expected to receive the largest share of funding, followed by water management, forestry, energy, tourism and healthcare.

Agriculture is considered among the sectors most vulnerable to climate change. Experts say crop yields could decline by 3–8% by 2050 unless adaptation measures are expanded.

Farmers are increasingly being encouraged to improve soil management, introduce drought-resistant varieties, invest in irrigation where possible and adopt precision agriculture technologies such as sensors, drones and satellite monitoring.

Researchers also caution that changing temperatures will affect not only crops but also pests, plant diseases and the timing of growing seasons. Vineyards are already experiencing earlier grape ripening and harvests, while producers are testing new grape varieties and cultivation methods suited to warmer conditions.

Tourism is also expected to evolve. Hotter summers, rising wildfire risks and increasing pressure on freshwater resources may make peak-season coastal holidays less attractive, while spring and autumn could become more important periods for visitors.

Rising sea levels are expected to pose additional long-term challenges for low-lying coastal areas.

Urban areas will face growing challenges as cities retain more heat, particularly overnight. Experts say greater investment in green spaces, cooling infrastructure and climate-resilient planning will become increasingly important.

Across both cities and rural communities, specialists agree that adapting to climate change will require long-term planning, technological innovation and continued investment to reduce risks and protect livelihoods.